Day 11: POSTCARDS FROM THE FUTURE

Chapter Preview Of The Soon-To-Be Published 30-Day Startup Manual

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DAY 11

POSTCARDS FROM THE FUTURE

Yesterday, you defined your MVP and stripped it to its essentials. You’ve made hard calls about what to build now and what to ignore. Today is about uncovering what must be learned when that product steps into the world.

You've already addressed the critical questions: whether users will adopt the product, stay engaged, and share it with others. The focus now shifts to designing a framework that validates their answers before launch, not after. This means transforming your assumptions into observable signals and using those signals to drive informed, confident decisions.

“Without data, you're just another person with an opinion.”

- W. Edwards Deming

When you're considering shipping a product, it's tempting to postpone thinking about metrics until after launch. But this often leads to an unnecessary scramble: building first, then rushing to define what success even looks like. There are three problems that can arise if we build before metrics:

The Assumption Locked-In Problem: Once something is built, it’s natural to become invested in proving it works. That emotional attachment can subtly skew how metrics are interpreted, making them instruments for affirming assumptions.

The Feature Sprawl Problem: Without clear success measures, every user complaint becomes a feature request. You start adding capabilities instead of improving core transformation.

The Pivot Paralysis Problem: When you finally realize something isn't working, you don't know what specifically is broken. You end up rebuilding everything instead of fixing the broken part.

Preview Note: This is just the opening of chapter 11. The full chapter helps you define success metrics by understanding constraints, signals, and opportunities.

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